About me...

- Arsenal-fan since '96, which has resulted in everything from extreme joy and happiness to deep frustration and anger. - Interested in the tactical aspects of football. - In real life (whatever that is) I work as a consultant, where I crunch numbers and try to pass on good advice.

2011-08-29

The worst defeat in more than 100 years

We've just experienced the biggest defeat in Wengers history - and the worst defeat in more than 100 years! 8-2! Eight - Two! I have NEVER seen the team performing so badly. Not even the 6-1 defeat was as bad. They were better at every simple aspect: Finishing, defending, pressure, tactical, physical, passing, tackling etc.


I'll try to give three (out of MANY things) that went wrong.


1) The pressure from the midfield was horrible


We started with Coquelin as the holding midfielder and Rocisky and Ramsey in front of him. While most people were worried about him, he actually did quite well. I know that some people have a hard time figuring out how a defensive player on a team that lets 8 (EIGHT!!) goals won't get flunked.  Bu he worked hard, won his share of tackles and interceptions before he was substituted (an I'll get back to that HUGE mistake) and replaced wit Chamberlain.


Earlier I have mentioned and criticised the total lack of pressure on the opponents from our players, and especially Rosicky and Ramsey. Any oh boy, yesterday was no different. A LOT of times you could see Ramsey walking around watching football while United-players passed and combined in front of our defence, while Coquelin single-handedly tried to cover the area where there were always 2-3 United-players. And this was already happening before the break!


As ZonalMarking described it:


The problem with pressing meant that Arsenal frequently had no pressure on the ball in midfield – despite the fact that they could afford Coquelin sitting, because Aaron Ramsey and Tomas Rosicky could close down Anderson and Tom Cleverley. Somehow, and again arguably due to fitness reasons, this failed – Anderson and Cleverley got time on the ball and could hit passes over the top.

Must be said, that I don't really buy the fitness-excuse. Again, this was happening in the first half. I really cannot understand how such a problem can occur against United. Why aren't the players chasing the ball and closing down space? One theory is that it is a result of Wenger's lack of punishment when players don't perform or work hard enough. We've seen the same thing with Diaby, who's laziness has cost us so many times. We do have som hard working midfielers, especially in Wilshere and Song, but the work ethic MUST be a team thing, as it is at the opponent who just beat the crap out of us.


I really hope that a new midfielder can solve some of the problem, but I'm getting afraid the root of the problem lies with Wenger, and the culture.


2) Wengers tactical choices

As I've said before, Wenger is really not a strong tactician. This is clear when observing the lack of defensive structure, the unorganized pressure and the use of playmaking wings in situations where we need the deep runs to stretch the opponent. And most obvious of it all it can be seen when he makes substitutions. 

Yesterday he (again) made a horrible mistake. After 62 minutes (3-1 to United) he substituted Coquelin with Chamberlain. With the problems Ramsey and Rosicky caused in the defence, it was no surprise that it would be disasterous. In app. 30 minutes we conceded 5 (FIVE!) goals, which could have been 7-8 goals, had it not been for Szczesny. Instantly space opened up, and United had even more space in front of our defence.


He has done something similar before. In games where we need to wing the midfield battles, he withdraws the hard workers and replace them with offensive players - and often without any idea about how they should be organized.


Again we were punished.


3) Clinical finishing...?

To be fair we have never been clinical in front of goal. Even when we were the best team in the Premiership we wasted many chances. Yesterday we had eight shots on target, and created two goals. 25% of SoT converted to goals. United had 14 SoT and scored 8 - 57%. So far in the league, we've had an average of four SoT per game.

Before people stated, that while we weren't able to defend well, we were brilliant in the offence. Now even tha last part is untrue.

I'm about to lose confidence in Wenger entirely, to be honest.

2011-08-22

Three learnings from the first games

So, at this point we have played three important matches. Two in the league against Newcastle and Liverpool and one Champions League play-off match against Udinese. Bu what have we learned from this so far? 


1) We still need a midfielder

While Ramsey undoubtly is a great talent with great vision and reading of the offensive part of the game, he still has a lot to learn. He is still some way off from having the required level. Especially the physical part of the game gives him big trouble.

Against Newcastle he was dispossessed five times. Only Tioté was able to match that. He made four turnovers, which no other player could match.  In the defence he made just one tackle, and no interceptions. Against Liverpool he was dispossessed four times. Only Nasri topped that, with worrying nine times. Moreover he made two turnovers (Frimpong managed 0+0). In the defence Ramsey again made just one tackle, but had two interceptions.

Unfortunately I don't have the excact numbers against Udinese, but the story was the same. He simply proved he doesn't have the needed level at this moment. We lost the midfield battle in all three matches, because we didn't have physical presence, and we were not careful enough in the passing. And here Ramsey was also a sinner. When he lost the ball high up field, he wasn't to be found in the right positions afterwards.

I know we have missed Wilshere on Ramsey's side, but that can't be used as an excuse. Wenger must buy that strong midfielder, så we can get the physical upperhand on the midfield, that made us so strong in Wengers first years.



2) We (still) make too many silly mistakes

We saw it against Newcastle and we saw it against Liverpool. An Arsenal-player couldn't control himself and recieved a red card. And in fact we should've had two against Newcastle (Song tackle). Why are the players so afraid to tell each other to pull themselves together? I don't buy the "lack of natural leader"-argument. It is simply a cultural thing, perhaps developed through experiencing a manager who is over-protecting. We have Vermaelen, who can instruct co-players. We have Wilshere who, despite his age, is not afraid to take responsibility. We have Van Persie, who is now our captain.

Back in the days you'd see Keown, Adams, Henry, Bergkamp etc. taking affair, when other players weren't  fighting hard enough or made silly tackles. There seemed to be a mutual understanding, that it was okay to tell each-other to focus, work etc. The only way that can come back is by implementing a new culture, where it is natural that actions have consequences. Unfortunately I don't believe in seing that while Wenger is in charge.


3) Arshavin is done

Despite some people misusing statistics on assists and goals, it is clear for most of us, that Arshavin should be sold. While he, surprisingly enough, has started working harder when the ball is lost the overall offensive contribution is poor. He simply makes too many stupid decisions when he has the ball. The necessary offensive runs without the ball is a rare thing to see from Arshavin, who has started to move more inside the pitch, perhaps as a result of fever dribles against the back being won.

Against Newcastle he only managed to complete 59% of his passes (Gervinho 79%). He won just one dribble (Gervinho four). He was dispossesed three times (Gervinho one)  and had one shot against target (Gervinho 0). Against Liverpool he completed 64% of his passes, made one dribble, was dispossesed three times and had one shot against target.

Not the kinds of figures you would expect from a player, who was supposed to be one of the strongest players, is it? Being one of the players with the highest wage doesn't make the situation any better.

Selling Arshavin would be an obvious solution. And we don't need Mata's or Hazard's to be better off.   

2011-08-13

Three tactical readjustments - defence

So, Premier League is about to take off. I can't really figure our how much I look forward to it actually. My optimism is at an all time low at the moment, as I have only little belief that the major defensive problems (set pieces and the structure) will be solved. I've had that belief earlier. But i guess that if you get disappointed too often....

In this blog I will take a look at the latter mentioned defensive problem, and more specifically look at three aspect: Defending according to the system 4-3-3,  adjustment of the lines and roles of the backs.

1) Defending as 4-3-3/4-5-1 instead of 4-4-2

As I have mentioned earlier, we've had some defensive problems as a direct result of the use of Cesc. More specifically we have been outnumbered on the midfield. If you look at the graphic, this visualizes what we have been seeing during the last two seasons. Van Persie and Cesc often tried to put hight pressure on the centre halves, resulting in a opponent midtfielder dropping back in the space behind, have opportunity to draw back an attacker or letting a winger cut in, leaving us outnumbered.


Figure one: Classical Arsenal structure

I really don't get the tactical idea behind this, unless we are talking about a ball loss high up field, where the opponent is still not structured. We need to be more patient. Why don't we let the opponent centre halves have the ball? Even though some moderne defenders are quite capable on the ball, it is MUCH preferable comparing to opponent midfielders having finding space. This leads us to the second bullet:


2) We need to adjust the pressure.

We saw it in big parts of the games against Barcelona, and also when we beat Manchester United. When pressure is calibrated, and the space between the lines is minimized we almost look strong. If we let opponent centre halves have the ball, the opposing team must either move a defender forward (which especially in the coming seasons will be to much joy for our pacy wingers) drag en attacker back or play the ball long. If space between the now more flat midfield and the defence is minimized, it will be incredibly hard for the opponents to find space. They will have to try deep balls. But as we have quite pacy defenders, we will win those balls. Koscielny has showed several times, that he is suited to this type of defending. Against Manchester and Barcelona he was excellent.

Look at the figure below. It really shows how space is minimized when the pressure is calibrated:


Figure two: The optimal structure

It will take no time to close down players and space. To exploit this, our full backs can contribute:


3) Our full backs must send opponent wingers inwards, not outwards.

Well, we know it from when we have met well structured opponents which have forced our wingers to move inwards: The play becomes too tight. We can do this as well. In the prime of our defence, Dixon and Winterburn were taught this. They KNEW that the centre halves would simply eat the small wingers, with the helt from our center midfielders, if they were forced to cut inside.

With space between midfield and defence being minimized, the wingers cutting inside will be shut down without other key areas are left exploited.

I know this is not easy to implement. But it surely must be the way to go. Unfortunately this requires that the defensive training is changed, as a tight structure requires stop n' go corrections - an probably A LOT of them for us.

2011-08-08

Almost there, yet still stuck

Alright, back again from a great trip, that kept some of the more annoying feelings towards Arsenal away - or almost at least. I have managed to get some input about the last friendly games, before EPL kicks off.

Not surprisingly (AT ALL!) we have thrown away leads against opponents we should be able to control. And again our defence apparently looked quite terrible. How can Vermaelen (who was seen as THE one missing last season) lose a physical challange against a curly-haired midget?

I think we are in for another frustrating season.

This leads to the first bullet:


1) The trust is gone

For several years the perhaps most well-known mantrum "In Wenger we trust!". And it would be unfair to claim that he hasn't done a lot to earn that trust. When he arrived, he managed to re-design the entire sports setup, implementing more sophistic physical training, nutritional programme and even designing training facilities. Moreover he managed to put creativity into the game, allowing players to develop those more "sexy" sides of their game. And of course his ability to spot and nurture talent cannot be forgotten.

However, in the last seasons there has been a growing dissatisfaction  among Arsenal-supporters. In a recent survey conducted by AST, 42% of the respondents stated, that if Wenger fails to deliver a trophy in the upcoming season, the board should reconsider its confidence in Wenger. Moreover, more than 60 percent believed that Wenger's philosophy had taken too much precedence over the objective of winning trophies. I general it seems like people believe that Wenger has simply lost touch with reality.

And it is not really hard to understand why. During the last seasons we have seen the same mistikes repeating over and over again, an mainly in the defensive area. Each summer Wenger has claimed, that there was focus on the defensive area, but the only solution has been to buy a couple of defenders. Again this year Wenger stated that the coaching setup would not be changed.

The Nasri/Cesc-situation doesn't make the situation any better. We have two profiles, who seem very little interested in staying and fighting for the club. As I wrote earlier, selling them will not be catastrophic. Actually we can get stronger. Yet Wenger seems to be keen on keeping them.

If Wenger does not bring silverware to the club this season, he MUST be replaced. The excellent Tuchel could be a solution. But I'll dig into that issue once it seems like Wenger is about to either quit or get sacked.


2) Bartley - a future Arsenal hero?

When Bartley arrived from Bolton, it was obvious that he had some of the classical tool, that could contribute to an Arsenal-team that lacked such attributes. Tall, physically strong, strong in the air and quite pacy, he soon became an integral part of the of the reserve team. In 2010 the Blades secured a loan deal for the remainder of the season, and later the first half of the 2010/2011 season. In the period Bartley proved to be mature and commanding and became a favourite. Later he went to Rangers and continued to impress, also performing quite nicely on the defensive midfield.

Now he is back at Rangers. As Wenger seems to have a strange confidence towards the ever worrying Squid, this is at least better than selling. At some point there was reason to fear that Bartley would move elsewhere on a permanent basis. But apparently Wenger has convinced him to extend the contract. And I like this! He has all the tools to be a great defender for us.


3) Countdown

Less than one week to go. In the beginning of the summer I could not wait until the season got started, but as weeks have passed by I fear for another replication of what we have seen so many time before. Unfortunately I have little belief that we will not again experience loads of frustrations. Wengers comments on the training setup and the preseason matches have given little reason to regain optimism.

In August the schedule is this:

Newcastle away
Udinese home
Liverpool home
Udinese away
ManU away

Against Newcastle we need to wash away the shame from our last meeting. Luckily we won't have to struggle with Carroll, but on the midfield they look stronger, especially with should've-been-an-Arsenal-player Cabaye. Against Udinese we'll miss Nasri and Van Persie, as they are banned. Moreover there are still doubts over Wilshere, Nasri, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Walcott and of course Cesc.

I can't wait to get the season started.......or over with.